IN THIS REPORT

• RATING SUMMARY – HOLD. Short-term headwinds warrant patience; the secular bull market remains intact. p. 1
• THE RATE-FIRST REGIME RETURNS – A Fed hiking cycle, 19-year highs in Treasury yields and the highest real yields since 2008 raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. p. 2 – 4
• CENTRAL BANK DEMAND – Is official-sector buying actually slowing? The data says yes on trend, but with an important caveat. p. 4 – 6
• TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE UNTESTED BREAKOUT – Why the ~$3,500 breakout level still matters, and what the chart structure is telling us. p. 6 – 9
• THE SECULAR CASE – Fiscal dominance, the reserve-asset question, and why today’s headwind plants the seed of tomorrow’s tailwind. p. 9 – 11
• SCENARIOS, TRIGGERS & CONCLUSION – Bear, base and bull cases, our accumulation zone, and what would change our rating.  p. 12 – 13